Soldier uses inside information to bet on Maduro capture

Federal authorities have arrested an American soldier who allegedly used confidential information to place a series of wagers on the capture of then-Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro through the prediction market platform Polymarket, reported Politico

Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a 38-year-old soldier in the U.S. Army who was involved in the planning of Maduro’s capture, allegedly placed more than a dozen wagers on Polymarket tied to the operation, the Justice Department said Thursday. He was charged with unlawfully using confidential government information for personal gain, among other charges.

Van Dyke’s bets totaled $33,034 and, ultimately, paid out more than $400,000, according to prosecutors.

The case underscores the swelling concern in Washington about the threat of insider trading on prediction market platforms like Polymarket and its chief rival, Kalshi. Once niche financial exchanges, the prediction markets have broken out of obscurity over the last year with a broad menu of wagers on everything from U.S. elections, sports and even the weather.

But their rise — alongside a number of presciently well-timed wagers around geopolitical events such as Maduro’s capture and the war in Iran — has ignited broad concern among policymakers about the companies and their regulation. The Maduro trades on Polymarket earlier this year, which generated a flurry of headlines, were among the first to draw Congress’s attention. Shortly thereafter, U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York Jay Clayton said he expected to see cases brought on the issue of insider trading in the prediction markets.

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