Homicide down 11.6% nationally the largest single year decline since record-keeping began

Gallup poll last year found that 77 percent of Americans believed crime was rising, even though it was actually falling

The number of murders reported in the United States dropped in 2023 at the fastest rate on record, continuing a decline from the surge in homicides during the pandemic, according to The New York Times.

The F.B.I.’s report, which is the agency’s final compilation of crime data for 2023, showed that there were about 2,500 fewer homicides in 2023 that year than in 2022, a decline of 11.6 percent. That was the largest year-to-year decline since national record-keeping began in 1960, according to Jeff Asher, a crime data analyst based in New Orleans.

Overall, violent crime fell 3 percent and property crime fell 2.6 percent in 2023, with burglaries down 7.6 percent and larceny down 4.4 percent. Car thefts, though, continue to be an exception, rising more than 12 percent from the year before.

The latest data is consistent with earlier preliminary reports from the F.B.I., and with research from other organizations and criminologists, all showing continuing declines in most crime, including murder.

Even so, crime remains a point of contention in the presidential race, with the Republican nominee, former President Donald J. Trump, describing American cities as crime-ridden dystopias. Polling shows that Americans remain concerned about crime, and that there is a consistent gap between crime data and the public perception of the problem. For instance, a Gallup poll last year found that 77 percent of Americans believed crime was rising, even though it was actually falling.

“Perceptions of safety are not driven by numbers in spreadsheets,” said Adam Gelb, the chief executive of the Council on Criminal Justice, a nonprofit policy research group that produces its own reports on crime in America. “They are about what people see and hear and feel on the streets, on TV and in their social media feeds. They are not sitting around studying the F.B.I.’s website.”

Some states, most notably California, are weighing tougher criminal justice measures in the face of public concern over crime. In November, voters in the state will decide whether to roll back one of the state’s landmark criminal justice measures, known as Proposition 47. The measure, approved in 2014, lowered penalties for theft and drug crimes and was responsible for a sharp reduction in the state’s prison population.

As residents of all political stripes express frustration with shoplifting and the role of fentanyl and other drugs in perpetuating disorder, polls are showing overwhelming support in California for rolling back Proposition 47.

At the same time, two progressive district attorneys in California who pursued policies to reduce imprisonment are in tough fights to keep their jobs. Both were elected in the aftermath of the murder of George Floyd by police officers in Minneapolis and the social justice protests it provoked. One, Pamela Price in Oakland, faces a recall election driven by concerns about crime. The other, George Gascon in Los Angeles, is in an uphill battle against a more conservative challenger, polling shows.

 

Though the overall trend in crime is downward, there were still 19,252 murders last year in the United States, according to the F.B.I. And the progress was not uniform, with some cities, like Washington D.C., Greensboro, N.C., and Memphis, Tenn, showing big increases in homicides last year, Mr. Asher noted in an analysis he published on Monday.

“The caveat is that these are national numbers,” said Alex Piquero, a professor of criminology at the University of Miami and the former director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics said of the F.B.I. report.

Pointing to a mass shooting in Alabama over the weekend that killed four people, Mr. Piquero said: “When you hear what happens in Birmingham, or you hear what happens in some cities in the United States that still are experiencing firearm violence the way it is, the national numbers won’t mean a lot for those people or those communities. So we have to always remember that we are moving in the right direction, but now is not the time to stop doing what all the people who are invested in crime prevention are doing.”

Criminologists attribute the drop in violent crime to a number of factors, all related to the country emerging from the pandemic: more social services coming back; investments in violence-prevention initiatives; social bonds being re-established; more proactive policing.

“All of those things that were turned off, from a crime prevention point of view, have now been turned on,” Mr. Piquero said.

In a statement, President Biden cited the reduction in crime and pointed to investments in community anti-violence groups that were part of Covid stimulus legislation, saying, “Americans are safer now than when we took office.” He also urged more funding for police departments.

While the F.B.I.’s new report covers crime in 2023, more recent research shows the trend of falling homicides continuing into 2024. A report released in July by the Council on Criminal Justice found that many major U.S. cities had seen sharp drops in homicides this year, and that rates of homicide had returned to prepandemic levels.

And in a database kept by Mr. Asher that tracks murders in nearly 300 American cities, homicides in those cities have declined by nearly 18 percent so far this year — equating to more than 1,200 fewer murders then last year.

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