Political candidates around the United States have released thousands of ads focusing on violent crime this year, and most registered voters see the issue as very important in the Nov. 8 midterm elections. But official statistics from the federal government paint a complicated picture when it comes to recent changes in the U.S. violent crime rate, according to a study by Pew Research Center.
With Election Day approaching, here’s a closer look
at voter attitudes about violent crime, as well as an analysis of the nation’s
violent crime rate itself. All findings are drawn from Center surveys and the
federal government’s two
primary measures of crime: a large annual survey from the Bureau of Justice
Statistics (BJS) and an annual study of local police data from the Federal
Bureau of Investigation (FBI).
How we did this
Around six-in-ten registered voters (61%) say
violent crime is very important when making their decision about who to vote
for in this year’s congressional elections. Violent crime ranks alongside
energy policy and health care in perceived importance as a midterm issue,
but far
below the economy, according to the Center’s October survey.
Republican voters are much more likely than
Democratic voters to see violent crime as a key voting issue this year. Roughly
three-quarters of Republican and GOP-leaning registered voters (73%) say
violent crime is very important to their vote, compared with around half of
Democratic or Democratic-leaning registered voters (49%).
Conservative Republican voters are especially
focused on the issue: About eight-in-ten (77%) see violent crime as very
important to their vote, compared with 63% of moderate or liberal Republican
voters, 65% of moderate or conservative Democratic voters and only about a
third of liberal Democratic voters (34%).
Older voters are far more likely than younger ones
to see violent crime as a key election issue. Three-quarters of registered
voters ages 65 and older say violent crime is a very important voting issue for
them this year, compared with fewer than half of voters under 30 (44%).
There are other demographic differences, too. When
it comes to education, for example, voters without a college degree are
substantially more likely than voters who have graduated from college to say
violent crime is very important to their midterm vote.
Black voters are particularly likely to say violent
crime is a very important midterm issue. Black Americans have consistently
been more likely than other racial and ethnic groups to express
concern about violent crime, and that remains the case this year.
Some 81% of Black registered voters say violent
crime is very important to their midterm vote, compared with 65% of Hispanic
and 56% of White voters. (There were not enough Asian American voters in the
Center’s survey to analyze independently.)
Differences by race are especially pronounced among
Democratic registered voters. While 82% of Black Democratic voters say violent
crime is very important to their vote this year, only a third of White
Democratic voters say the same.
Annual government surveys from the Bureau of Justice
Statistics show no recent increase in the U.S. violent crime rate. In
2021, the most
recent year with available data, there were 16.5 violent crimes for every
1,000 Americans ages 12 and older. That was statistically unchanged from the
year before, below pre-pandemic levels and far below the rates recorded in the
1990s, according to the National
Crime Victimization Survey.
For each of the four violent crime types tracked in
the survey – simple assault, aggravated assault, robbery and rape/sexual
assault – there was no statistically significant increase either in 2020 or
2021.
The National Crime Victimization Survey is fielded
each year among approximately 240,000 Americans ages 12 and older and asks them
to describe any recent experiences they have had with crime. The survey counts
threatened, attempted and completed crimes, whether or not they were reported
to police. Notably, it does not track the most serious form of
violent crime, murder, because it is based on interviews with surviving crime
victims.
The FBI also estimates that there was no increase in
the violent crime rate in 2021. The other major government study of crime
in the U.S., the National
Incident-Based Reporting System from the Federal Bureau of
Investigation, uses a different methodology from the BJS survey and only tracks
crimes that are reported to police.
The most
recent version of the FBI study shows no rise in the national violent
crime rate between 2020 and 2021. That said, there is considerable
uncertainty around the FBI’s figures for 2021 because of a transition
to a new
data collection system. The FBI reported an increase in
the violent crime rate between 2019 and 2020, when the previous data
collection system was still in place.
The FBI estimates the violent crime rate by tracking
four offenses that only partly overlap with those tracked by the National Crime
Victimization Survey: murder and non-negligent manslaughter, rape, aggravated
assault and robbery. It relies on data voluntarily submitted by thousands of
local police departments, but many law enforcement agencies do not participate.
In the latest FBI study, around four-in-ten police
departments – including large
ones such as the New York Police Department – did not submit data, so
the FBI estimated data for those areas. The high nonparticipation rate is at
least partly due to the new reporting system, which asks local police
departments to submit far more information about each crime than in the past.
The new reporting system also makes it difficult to compare recent data with
data from past years.
While the total U.S. violent crime rate does not
appear to have increased recently, the most serious form of violent crime –
murder – has risen significantly during the pandemic. Both the
FBI and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported a roughly
30% increase in the U.S. murder rate between 2019 and 2020, marking
one of the largest year-over-year increases ever recorded. The FBI’s latest
data, as well as provisional
data from the CDC, suggest that murders continued to rise in 2021.
Despite the increase in the nation’s murder rate in
2020, the rate remained well below past highs, and murder remains the least
common type of violent crime overall.
There are many reasons why voters might be concerned
about violent crime, even if official statistics do not show an increase in the
nation’s total violent crime rate. One important consideration is that
official statistics for 2022 are not yet available. Voters might be reacting to
an increase in violent crime that has yet to surface in annual government
reports. Some estimates from nongovernmental organizations do point
to an increase in certain kinds of violent crime in 2022: For example, the
Major Cities Chiefs Association, an organization of police executives
representing large cities, estimates that robberies and aggravated
assaults increased
in the first six months of this year compared with the same period the
year before.
Voters also might be thinking of specific kinds of
violent crime – such as murder, which has risen substantially – rather than
the total violent crime rate, which is an aggregate measure that
includes several different crime types, such as assault and robbery.
Some voters could be reacting to conditions in their
own communities rather than at the national level. Violent crime is a heavily
localized phenomenon, and the national violent crime rate may not reflect
conditions in Americans’ own neighborhoods.
Media coverage could affect
voters’ perceptions about violent crime, too, as could public statements
from political candidates and elected officials. Republican candidates, in
particular, have emphasized
crime on the campaign trail this year.
More broadly, the public often tends to believe that
crime is up, even when the data shows it is down. In 22 of 26 Gallup surveys conducted
since 1993, at least six-in-ten U.S. adults said there was more crime
nationally than there was the year before, despite the general downward trend
in the national violent crime rate during most of that period.
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