U.S. in heightened threat environment heading into Election Day

 The United States is in a heightened threat environment heading into Election Day, with multiple extremist factions threatening to disrupt the electoral process, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. Two prominent assassination attempts on former President Trump have occurred against a backdrop of myriad disrupted plots and a record high number of threats to public officials, as violent political rhetoric raises the stakes. Both foreign adversaries and Salafi-jihadist extremists have sought to take advantage of this fractious moment by inspiring or launching acts of violence in the United States.  

The days (or weeks) following the election could prove the most consequential, particularly if a clear winner has not emerged for the presidency. Such uncertainty gives conspiracy theories greater space to develop and circulate and can significantly increase political unrest or even violence within local communities. In 2020, for instance, vote-tallying centers in swing counties and cities—including Maricopa County in Arizona, Philadelphia, and Detroit—were targeted by extremist protests or terrorist plots. 

This year, violent far-right extremists likely pose the greatest threat, given the January 6, 2021, precedent of violence within a political transition, as well as violent rhetoric repeatedly issued by the Republican Party’s candidate. The Department of Homeland Security has even warned that the “heightened risk” of violence might include extremists attempting to sabotage ballots—a step that, if successful, could launch the country into a constitutional crisis. Recent arson attacks on ballot boxes in Vancouver, Washington, and Portland, Oregon, remain unsolved. Meanwhile, anti-government militia groups remain active on Facebook—the social media platform appears to have allowed its artificial intelligence (AI) systems to auto-generate pages for the groups—and continue to coordinate over the platform to conduct vigilante monitoring of ballot boxes to prevent “ballot stuffing,” a move better suited to intimidating voters than illuminating electoral irregularities.

The unrest could continue up to Inauguration Day on January 20, 2025, and even beyond.

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