There is a lot of evidence that murder is falling faster nationally than it has ever before — with the caveat that official murder data only exists through 1960, according to Jeff Asher at Jeff-alytics.
We won’t know just how fast murder fell in 2023, but all of
the available data points to a decline that was at or near the fastest pace
ever recorded last year. Murder was down 11.7 percent in our sample of
214 cities (see the link to 2023 data at the bottom) with available
data, it was down 13.2 percent in the FBI’s quarterly data through Q4 2023, and
it was down 12.2 percent in the 31
states that had published data as of about a month ago. Other sources
such as CDC’s
WONDER and the Gun
Violence Archive also point to large declines in homicides and fatal
shootings respectively.
One reason to suspect that last year was at or near the
largest ever recorded is that murder usually doesn’t decline all that fast from
one year to the next. The largest decline ever recorded came in 1996 and that was
just 9.1 percent (by contrast, there had been 7 one-year increases that were
larger than 9.1 percent before 2020’s monumental increase), so even a
double-digit decline in murder would be the largest ever recorded.
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