Creators: Homicides Are Down but More Murderers Are Walking the Streets

Matthew T. Mangino
Creators Syndicate
October 29, 2024

In September, The New York Times declared that "the number of murders reported in the United States dropped in 2023 at the fastest rate on record."

The FBI reported that there were about 2,500 fewer homicides in 2023 than in 2022, a decline of 11.6%. According to Jeff Asher, a crime data analyst who publishes on Substack, the data suggests "the largest year-to-year decline since national record-keeping began in 1960."

However, the picture is not all rosy. In the criminal justice system, "clearance rate" is a term used to measure the rate at which law enforcement agencies solve crimes. In the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting Program, law enforcement agencies can clear, or "close," offenses in one of two ways: by arrest or by exceptional means.

Clearance by exceptional means could include the death of a suspect or the reluctance of the victim or witnesses to cooperate in an investigation.

Declining clearance rates are a problem. A murder in America has a 50% chance of being solved.

Clearance rates have declined precipitously over the last 60 years. In 1965, clearance rates for murder hovered above 90%. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in 2022, the last year of available data, the clearance rate nationwide was 52.3%.

Although homicides have declined, solving murders has become more difficult. Even with modern investigative techniques, more homicides than ever remain unsolved.

The scope of the problem is enormous. For instance, in 2022, according to the FBI, there were 24,849 homicides. Based on the clearance rate for homicides in 2022, there are approximately 11,853 unsolved murders. That means there are probably more than 10,000 murderers walking the streets from 2022.

If you take the total number of murders over the last 10 years and divide that number by the average clearance rate, the result is more than 80,000 unsolved murders.

More than half of America's major police departments are struggling to solve homicides at the same level of success they enjoyed just a decade ago, according to a 2010 study of federal crime records by the nonprofit Murder Accountability Project.

The study focused on the nation's 160 police departments that investigate at least 10 homicides a year and annually report crime data to the FBI's Uniform Crime Report. Fifty-four percent of those departments reported less success in solving murders committed during the 10 years prior to the report than in the previous 10 years.

The problem is about more than police work. The MAP study found most departments with declining murder clearance rates also experienced an increase in homicides. These departments often are located in areas with declining tax bases or facing other kinds of fiscal challenges.

Some crime analysts have also cast doubt on FBI data. According to Newsweek, the concerns stem from the suggestion that the data "only covers 77 percent of the U.S. population and should be considered preliminary, given that state and local law enforcement agencies have months to report their data and correct any errors."

In addition, participating in the FBI's Uniform Crime Report is voluntary. If a police department refuses to provide data, it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to replicate the data.

This summer, the FBI said the first three months of 2024 saw a "historic" drop in rates of violent crime and murder across the country. That is good news, but is it accurate?

Asher wrote, "Crime almost certainly declined nationally in the first three months of 2024 compared to the first three months of 2023, but the FBI's data is almost certainly overstating that decline."

Matthew T. Mangino is of counsel with Luxenberg, Garbett, Kelly & George P.C. His book "The Executioner's Toll, 2010" was released by McFarland Publishing. You can reach him at www.mattmangino.com and follow him on X @MatthewTMangino).

To visit Creators CLICK HERE