Jeff Asher writes at Jeff-alytics blog:
Murder in the United States rose at the fastest pace ever recorded in 2020 and it rose again in 2021, but murder is likely falling nationally 2022. Publicly available shooting data from two dozen cities suggests the decline in murder is being driven by gun violence dropping in many cities with a handful of places seeing sharp declines.
Murder increased by nearly
30 percent nationally in 2020, the largest one-year increase in
recorded US history both in terms of the number of murders and the rate of
murders per 100,000 residents, and the FBI estimated1 a smaller increase
occurred in 2021.
Year-to-date
data from over 90 cities this year, however, suggests murder is
falling in 2022 with those cities down about 5 percent this year relative to
the same timeframe last year. The big city decline in murder representing a
likely national trend is supported by data from the Gun Violence Archive
showing a smaller (2.5 percent) decline in firearm homicides this year relative to last
year.
Below are the number of US murders and murder rate
per 100k from 1960 through 2022 with 2022’s figures estimated from the big city
data. Gun violence is still far more common now than it was just a few years
ago, but the decline in 2022 encourages optimism for the first time in several
years.
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