The United States may be experiencing one of the largest annual percent changes in murder ever recorded, according to my preliminary data, reports The Atlantic. It is still early in the year and the trend could change over the second half of the year, but data from a sufficiently large sample of big cities have typically been a good predictor of the year-end national change in murder, even after only five months.
Murder is down about 12 percent year-to-date in more
than 90 cities that
have released data for 2023, compared with data as of the same date in 2022.
Big cities tend to slightly amplify the national trend—a 5 percent decline in
murder rates in big cities would likely translate to a smaller decline
nationally. But even so, the
drop shown in the preliminary data is astonishing.
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