GateHouse Media
October 25, 2019
Recently I wrote that crime rates are at a near all-time
low. According to the FBI, violent crime in the United States has been cut
nearly in half in the last 25 years.
However, a closer look at the data reveals problems. Most
crimes are not reported to police, and most reported crimes are not solved.
In its biannual survey, the Department of Justice, Bureau of
Justice Statistics asks victims of crime whether they reported the crime to
police. The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is a national survey of
approximately 49,000 to 77,400 households, on the frequency of crime
victimization, as well as, characteristics and consequences of victimization.
In 2018, only 43% of violent crimes tracked in the NCVS were
reported to police. And in the much more common category of property crime, only
34% were reported.
Crimes go unreported for all sorts of reasons, including
fear of repercussions, lack of trust in the police, long waits for police to
respond to a call or simply disinterest in involving the police in a minor
incident.
There are obvious reasons why some crimes are reported more
often than others. Homicide, for instance, leaves behind a significant piece of
evidence - a body. Sure, there are unreported homicides, victims go missing,
and their bodies never recovered, but homicide has an extremely high rate of
police involvement.
Rape, on the other hand, is different. Women are reluctant
to report rape and men who have been raped rarely report their victimization to
the police. According to the NCVS, less than 1 in 4 sexual assaults are reported
to the police.
According to NCVS data, aggravated assault and auto theft
are reported to the police at much higher rates. For example, nearly four out
of every five auto thefts are reported to the police.
Stolen vehicles are expensive to replace and are more likely
to be recovered by police than other stolen items. In addition, the vast
majority of cars are insured and most insurance policies require a police
report before companies will pay on a claim.
Aggravated assaults involve the intent to inflict serious
bodily injury. As such, these crimes are more likely to result in
hospitalization and most states require hospitals to report suspicious injuries
to law enforcement.
Unfortunately, an even dire problem comes to light after
crimes are reported. According to the Pew Research Center, most of the crimes
reported to police are never solved. Based on a measure known as the “clearance
rate,” the FBI determines the percentage of crimes that are closed or
“cleared.” In the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report, law enforcement agencies can
clear offenses in one of two ways - arrest or by exceptional means.
Clearance by exceptional means includes the death of a
suspect or the reluctance of the victim or witnesses to cooperate in an
investigation.
According to Pew, police nationwide cleared 46% of violent
crimes that were reported to them last year. Clearance of property crimes was
an abysmal 18%.
Clearance rates have declined precipitously over the last 50
years. In 1965, the clearance rate for homicide was just above 90%. Last year,
the clearance rate nationwide was 62.3%.
Although homicide has declined dramatically in this country
from a high water mark of 24,530 in 1993 to 16,214 last year, solving murders
has become more difficult. Even with modern investigative techniques, more
homicides than ever remain unsolved.
The scope of the problem is enormous. If you take the total
number of murders over the last 10 years and divide that number by the average
clearance rate the result is approximately 54,000 unsolved murders. That means
there are as many as 50,000 killers walking among us.
Matthew T. Mangino is of counsel with Luxenberg, Garbett,
Kelly & George P.C. His book The Executioner’s Toll, 2010 was released by
McFarland Publishing. You can reach him at www.mattmangino.com and follow him
on Twitter @MatthewTMangino.
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