Here are the Supreme Court cases to watch in 2026, according to Axios:
Birthright
citizenship
The
Supreme Court will likely decide Trump's executive order ending birthright citizenship in early 2026 in Trump v. Barbara.
Driving
the news: Upholding Trump's order, which seeks to bar children of undocumented immigrants born in the U.S.
from citizenship, would overturn a right guaranteed by the 14th Amendment and upheld by the
court for more than a century.
Trump's
order was quickly met with legal challenges, and several courts temporarily halted its
implementation.
Flashback: The
administration argues birthright citizenship applies only to formerly enslaved
people who were granted citizenship under the 14th Amendment after the Civil War.
Michael
LeRoy, an immigration law expert at the University of Illinois at
Urbana-Champaign, previously told Axios' Avery Lotz that it's impossible to
predict how SCOTUS will rule — but a decision in Trump's favor could have
sweeping implications for other constitutional protections.
Trump's tariff case
SCOTUS
will decide the legality of Trump declaring a national emergency to impose
sweeping tariffs on foreign goods without congressional approval, in what he
has called the "most important case ever" in Learning Resources v. Trump.
State of
play: A ruling against Trump could force the government to refund more
than $100 billion in tariffs already collected and curtail his ability to use
declared emergencies to enact his economic agenda.
Trump has
repeatedly claimed tariff revenue will help pay down the national debt,
bankroll aid to farmers and cover the cost of his new "warrior dividend" — a one-time $1,776 bonus for roughly
1.45 million service members — even though the bonus is actually being paid out
of previously approved Pentagon housing funds, not tariffs.
Yes, but: The
president has argued his far-reaching tariffs create jobs and boost U.S.
manufacturing, claims many economists dispute. Economists also worry the government might
ultimately have to return the tariff revenue.
In recent
weeks, companies including Costco, Revlon, Bumble Bee Foods and the maker of
Ray-Ban have sued, seeking refunds if the justices ultimately strike
down the tariffs.
What
Trump's saying: "Evil, American hating Forces are fighting us at the
United States Supreme Court," Trump said in Truth Social post in November.
"Pray
to God that our Nine Justices will show great wisdom, and do the right thing
for America!"
Banning conversion therapy
SCOTUS is
expected to rule on a case challenging bans on LGBTQ+ conversion therapy for minors — a discredited practice aimed at changing young people's
sexual orientations or gender identities in Chiles v. Salazar.
Zoom
out: The justices will decide whether therapists' conversations with
patients are protected by the First Amendment or considered medical treatment
that states can regulate.
LGBTQ+ advocates, major medical and mental health organizations have condemned conversion
therapy as harmful, discriminatory and ineffective.
Worth
noting: Twenty-three states had full bans on conversion therapy as of late
2025, with five states imposing a partial ban. Five states prohibit such bans,
while 18 have no restrictions.
Trans athletes in women's sports
SCOTUS
will hear arguments in two major cases — one from Idaho and another from West
Virginia — where states banned transgender athletes from participating in girls'
sports in West Virginia v. B.P.J. and Little v. Hecox.
Zoom in: The
court could decide Title IX, which prohibits sex discrimination in education
programs, does not protect transgender athletes competing in sports consistent
with their gender identity.
A decision
against the athletes would mark a major setback for the LGBTQ+ community,
adding to Trump's other 2025 actions to limit protections for transgender individuals.
The Voting Rights Act
The high
court appears poised to severely curtail Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act in
a decision that would reshape how legislative and congressional maps are
drawn nationwide and potentially reduce minority representation by significant
margins in Louisiana v. Callais.
Why it
matters: The case challenges a core provision of the Voting Rights Act that has created maps that allow
minority voters to elect their candidates of choice. Overturning it could allow
Republicans to lock in additional congressional and legislative seats across
the country.
The ruling
could make it significantly harder for minority voters to secure or maintain
electoral representation.
Campaign finance
SCOTUS
will rule on a Republican-backed challenge that aims to overturn decades-old
limits on how much political parties can spend in coordination with candidates in NRSC v. FEC.
What we're
watching: Election watchdogs warn that removing these limits would destroy
the few remaining firewalls between big money and candidates.
The case
would further remove campaign finance restrictions on how much an individual or
group can donate directly to a candidate, which provides a safeguard against
bribery or suspected corruption.
How it
works: Under current law, political action committees can raise unlimited
funds, but they can't coordinate with candidates.
Parties,
on the other hand, are limited in how much they can raise, but they are able to
cooperate with candidates.
Republicans
argue those limits violate the First Amendment by preventing parties from
supporting their nominees.
Firing independent agency heads
The
Supreme Court will decide whether Trump has the unilateral authority
to fire leaders of independent agencies in Trump v. Cook and Trump v. Slaughter.
The bottom
line: A ruling for Trump would overturn a 90-year-old precedent that shielded independent agency commissioners from
political firings.
Catch up
quick: The cases stem from Trump's attempted firing of Federal Reserve
governor Lisa Cook and his firings of FTC officials Rebecca Slaughter and Alvaro
Bedoya, who later resigned.
Trump said
their service at the agency was "inconsistent with my Administration's
policies," in a letter announcing the terminations.
Hawaii law prohibiting guns
SCOTUS
will rule on the legality of a Hawaii law that prohibits individuals from
carrying guns onto private property unless the owner gives explicit consent
in Wolford v. Lopez.
Hawaii's
list of "sensitive places," where firearms are banned, includes more
than 15 categories — places such as bars, beaches and banks — which plaintiffs
argue violates their 2nd Amendment rights.
Context: Hawaii
enacted the new restrictions in 2023 after the Supreme Court's Bruen decision, which held that the 2nd Amendment included
the right to carry in public.
California
has faced similar legal challenges after passing laws aimed at tightening
firearm restrictions on private property.
The
justices have agreed to consider only Hawaii's burden flipping provision,
which the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld, finding that the state's law
"falls well within the historical tradition," and not the broader
sensitive places restrictions as a whole.
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