Chicago is the blame for the nationwide uptick in crime?

The Brennan Center anticipates that the national murder rate will rise 13.1 percent in 2016 over 2015.

But, according to the Washington Post, there is a catch? Crime overall will remain flat. And half of the increase this year, the Center's analysis suggests, will be due to the spike in Chicago alone. Half of the 31.5 percent increase in murders between 2014 and 2016 is solely a function of increases in Chicago, Baltimore and Washington.

The report updates preliminary analysis from the Center earlier this year with new data. At that point, the Center's analysis suggested that "while Americans in urban areas have experienced more murders this year than last year, they are safer than they were five years ago and much safer than they were 25 years ago." The new numbers don't change that core finding. "These findings undercut media reports referring to crime as 'out of control,'" the new report reads, "or heralding a new nationwide crime wave. But the data do call attention to specific cities, especially Chicago, and an urgent need to address violence there."

Particularly relative to the long-term trend the Brennan Center demonstrated only a subtle change in the national crime rate, anticipating a 1.3 percent increase this year.

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